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市场观察 · 2022

2008 年那一轮房价大跌，起点是大量屋主几乎没有净值，房价一跌就止赎、抛售。2022 年的情况很不一样：多数屋主不是“必须卖”。

1上一轮危机为什么会崩

上一次金融危机前，很多人用 5%、甚至更低的首付买下一百万的房子。房价下跌超过首付比例，房子就资不抵债，继续供房不再划算，大量屋主选择放弃，止赎房和抛售房涌入市场，进一步压低价格。

2这一次：大部分卖家不必卖

录制时，美国屋主的房屋净值普遍较高。据 ATTOM 等机构的数据，2022 年近半有贷款的房屋属于“高净值”状态，即贷款余额不超过房屋价值的一半，另外还有大量房屋完全没有贷款。

在这种情况下，房价即使下跌 5% 到 10%，多数屋主也不会被迫出售。视频中的这套约巴林达房源，屋主的态度就很典型：卖到心理价位就卖，卖不到就转为出租。

跟 2008 年不同的是：they don't have to sell。

3供应不会突然放大

屋主不必卖，短期内市场上的房源就不会大幅增加，仍然是买家多于卖家。所以李斐认为价格可能从最高点小幅回调，但如果期待房价跌三四成、“腰斩”，在当时的条件下并不现实。

4买房看需求，卖房看时机

行内常说：买房没有时间上的对错，卖房才有。自住买家解决的是居住需要，短期涨跌对生活影响不大；投资者总想买在最低点，但没有人能预知最低点，只有回头看才知道。房地产也不适合高频交易，更适合长期持有，但任何投资都没有收益保证。

卖房则不同。2021 年底到 2022 年初最火热时，卖家不仅能卖出高于市场的价格，还能附带“不做维修”“免费回租”等有利条款；到了录制时，这些条件已经很难谈到，价格也可能需要让步。不过当时房源仍低于疫情前的正常水平，对卖家仍算不错的窗口，只是不宜再期待高于市场的成交价。

常见问题

本文仅供一般信息参考，不构成法律、税务、贷款或投资建议。市场数据与政策以发布时为准，可能已有变化；具体情况请咨询持牌专业人士并自行核实。

One Reason I Don't Expect a Southern California Housing Crash: Homeowner Equity

Please note: This video was published on August 17, 2022. It is more than a year old. Market data, prices, rates, and policies reflect that date and may have changed. Contact us for the latest information.

Market Insight · 2022

The 2008 crash began with many owners holding almost no equity. When prices dipped, foreclosures and distressed sales followed. In 2022 the picture was very different: most owners did not have to sell.

1Why the Last Crisis Collapsed

Before the last financial crisis, many people bought million-dollar homes with 5% down or less. Once prices fell more than the down payment, they were underwater and paying the mortgage no longer made sense. Many walked away, and foreclosures and distressed sales flooded the market, pushing prices down further.

2This Time: Most Sellers Don't Have to Sell

At the time of recording, US homeowners generally held substantial equity. According to ATTOM and other sources, nearly half of mortgaged homes in 2022 were equity-rich, with loan balances at or below half the home's value, and many homes were owned free and clear.

Even with a 5% to 10% decline, most owners would not be forced to sell. The Yorba Linda seller in this video took a typical stance: sell at the right price, or rent it out.

Unlike 2008, they don't have to sell.

3Supply Will Not Suddenly Surge

If owners do not need to sell, listings will not jump in the short term, and buyers will still outnumber sellers. Fei expected prices might ease from the peak, but expecting a 30% to 50% drop was not realistic under those conditions.

4Buyers Focus on Need, Sellers on Timing

There is a saying in the industry: there is no wrong time to buy, only a wrong time to sell. Owner-occupants are meeting a housing need, and short-term swings matter less. Investors want to buy at the bottom, but no one can call it except in hindsight. Real estate is better suited to long-term holding than frequent trading, though no investment guarantees returns.

Selling is different. At the peak in late 2021 and early 2022, sellers got above-market prices plus terms like as-is sales and free rent-backs. By the time of recording, those terms were hard to get and price concessions were common. Inventory was still below pre-pandemic levels, so it was still a reasonable window, but sellers should not expect above-market prices.

FAQ

This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax, lending, or investment advice. Market data and policies reflect the time of publication and may have changed; please consult licensed professionals and verify independently.