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美国房产小讲堂 · 投资观念
我们常说美国房价涨了很多，但这是以美元计价的结果。如果换成黄金计价，会得出一个截然不同的结论。
核心要点
- 以美元计价，美国平均房价在约 100 年里上涨了约百倍。
- 以黄金计价，一块 10 公斤金砖在 1920 年代和今天都大致能买下一栋美国普通住宅。
- 房价上涨很大程度上反映的是货币购买力的下降，而不只是房子本身变贵。
- 黄金抗通胀，但不产生收益、难以使用杠杆；优质房产兼具抗通胀、现金流和杠杆优势。
1换一个计价单位看房价
这两年美国房价直线拉升，背后有低利率、高通胀、低库存等原因。但我们平时说的“房价上涨”，指的是以美元计价的价格。
如果换成黄金：在上世纪 20 年代，一块 10 公斤的金砖价值大约 $6,000 多，而当时美国平均房价大约在 $5,000 左右——一块金砖可以轻松买下一栋普通住宅。
2100 年后，金砖还买得起房吗
到了 2024 年，美国平均房价以美元计已经接近 $50 万，约是百年前的百倍。而同样一块 10 公斤金砖，按视频录制时的金价，价值大约 $80 万——依然足够买下一栋普通住宅。
所以从黄金的角度看，房子的“真实价格”在百年间并没有大幅上涨。（以上为大致估算，具体数值随金价和统计口径而变化。）
不是房价涨了，是钱不值钱了。
3为什么钱越来越不值钱
疫情期间，为了支撑经济，美国推出了大规模的财政和货币刺激措施，包括各类补贴和失业救济。货币供应大幅增加，美元的购买力随之下降，反映在资产价格上，就是房价的快速上涨。
理解这一点，就不难明白为什么很多人说“当初没上车，现在更难了”——持有现金的人，购买力在被稀释。
4那要不要囤黄金
黄金确实有抗通胀的优点，但也有明显的局限：
- 不产生收益：黄金本身没有租金或股息。
- 难以使用杠杆：普通人很难以合理成本加杠杆持有黄金。
相比之下，优质房产可以抗通胀、产生租金现金流，还可以用贷款放大资金效率。对于没有太多金融背景的普通投资者来说，先配置足够的优质房产，再考虑其他资产，是一个相对稳健的思路。当然，每个人的情况不同，投资前应结合自身状况并咨询专业人士。
常见问题
Q：美国房价真的百年没涨吗？
以美元计价，房价上涨了约百倍；但如果以黄金计价，一块 10 公斤金砖在 1920 年代和今天都大致能买一栋普通住宅，说明上涨主要反映的是货币购买力的变化。
Q：黄金和房产哪个更适合抗通胀？
两者都能对抗通胀。黄金不产生收益且难以加杠杆，房产则可以带来租金现金流并使用贷款，但流动性较低。应根据个人情况配置。
Q：现在买房是不是太晚了？
如果把房价上涨理解为货币贬值，那么持有现金同样面临购买力下降。是否买房应结合个人财务状况、持有周期和区域市场判断。
关于作者
Fei Li 李斐，FEI LI ESTATES 创始人，加州持牌房地产经纪人（DRE #02075610）。团队立足南加州橙县（Orange County），服务尔湾（Irvine）、新港滩（Newport Beach）、达纳角（Dana Point）、圣胡安卡皮斯特拉诺（San Juan Capistrano）及周边地区，自 2016 年起持续制作中英双语房产视频。
电话：(949) 353-9999 · 微信：feiliestates
本文仅供一般信息参考，不构成法律、税务、贷款或投资建议。市场数据与政策以发布时为准，可能已有变化；具体情况请咨询持牌专业人士并自行核实。
Have US Home Prices Really Risen in 100 Years? Looking at Housing Through Gold
Please note: This video was published on August 27, 2024. It is more than a year old. Market data, prices, rates, and policies reflect that date and may have changed. Contact us for the latest information.
US Real Estate 101 · Investing Mindset
We often say US home prices have soared, but that is measured in dollars. Measure them in gold, and you reach a very different conclusion.
Key Takeaways
- In dollar terms, average US home prices rose roughly a hundredfold over about a century.
- In gold terms, a 10 kg gold bar could buy an average US home in the 1920s and roughly still can today.
- Rising prices largely reflect the falling purchasing power of money, not just homes becoming more valuable.
- Gold hedges inflation but produces no income and is hard to leverage; quality real estate offers inflation protection, cash flow, and leverage.
1Measuring Home Prices in a Different Unit
US home prices climbed sharply in recent years, driven by low rates, high inflation, and low inventory. But when we say prices "went up," we mean prices in dollars.
Switch to gold: in the 1920s, a 10-kilogram gold bar was worth a little over $6,000, while the average US home cost around $5,000. One gold bar could easily buy an average home.
2A Century Later, Can a Gold Bar Still Buy a House?
By 2024, the average US home price approached $500,000 in dollar terms, roughly a hundred times higher. Yet the same 10 kg gold bar was worth about $800,000 at the time of recording — still enough to buy an average home.
In gold terms, the "real" price of housing has not risen dramatically over the past century. (These are rough estimates and vary with gold prices and data sources.)
Homes did not get more expensive. Money got cheaper.
3Why Money Keeps Losing Value
During the pandemic, the US rolled out large fiscal and monetary stimulus, including subsidies and unemployment benefits. The money supply expanded sharply, the dollar's purchasing power fell, and asset prices — including housing — rose quickly.
That is why many people feel it is harder than ever to buy: those holding cash have seen their purchasing power diluted.
4So Should You Buy Gold Instead?
Gold does hedge against inflation, but it has clear limits:
- No income: gold generates no rent or dividends.
- Hard to leverage: most people cannot hold gold with leverage at a reasonable cost.
Quality real estate, by contrast, can hedge inflation, generate rental cash flow, and use financing to improve capital efficiency. For everyday investors without a deep finance background, building a base of quality property before exploring other assets is a relatively steady approach. Everyone's situation differs; consult professionals before investing.
FAQ
Q：Have US home prices really not risen in 100 years?
In dollars, prices rose about a hundredfold. In gold, a 10 kg bar could buy an average home in the 1920s and roughly still can today, suggesting the rise mostly reflects changes in the value of money.
Q：Is gold or real estate a better inflation hedge?
Both can hedge inflation. Gold produces no income and is hard to leverage; real estate can generate rent and use financing but is less liquid. Allocation depends on your situation.
Q：Is it too late to buy a home?
If rising prices reflect currency depreciation, holding cash also loses purchasing power. Whether to buy depends on your finances, time horizon, and local market.
About the Author
Fei Li is the founder of FEI LI ESTATES and a California licensed real estate agent (DRE #02075610). Based in Orange County, Southern California, the team serves Irvine, Newport Beach, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, and surrounding areas. Fei has produced bilingual English/Chinese real estate videos since 2016.
Phone: (949) 353-9999 · WeChat: feiliestates
This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax, lending, or investment advice. Market data and policies reflect the time of publication and may have changed; please consult licensed professionals and verify independently.